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The United States may become the world's largest oil producer this year

the United States may become the world's largest oil producer this year

July 7, 2014

[China paint information] due to the dual attributes of crude oil and refined oil, the U.S. Department of Commerce stated that all crude oil processed by distillation towers is regarded as finished oil, so condensate after "small processing" belongs to the category of refined oil

with the progress of the shale revolution in the United States, Shale gas and shale oil production in the United States are increasing. In early July, Bank of America pointed out in its research report that the United States will overtake Saudi Arabia and Russia as the largest oil producer this year

at the same time, as one of the products of the shale revolution, condensate began to play a "marginal ball" for export under the background of increasing inventory. However, market participants pointed out that the opening of condensate exports in the United States does not mean that the United States has liberalized the 40 year ban on crude oil exports, which will not have a great impact on international crude oil prices

shale revolution changes the energy pattern of the United States

the Bank of America report estimated that in the first half of this year, the output of crude oil and liquefied natural gas in the United States has exceeded that of other countries

"the United States is now the world's leader in oil and natural gas production. The shale revolution in the United States has changed the domestic and even the global economy in recent years. Low energy prices are an important advantage of the U.S. economy." Franciscoblanch, head of commodity research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said

the so-called shale revolution refers to the research, exploration and development of shale resources that began in the United States. Relying on mature development and production technology and perfect pipeline facilities, the United States has a low cost of shale oil and gas exploitation, which makes it the only country in the world to realize large-scale commercial exploitation of shale gas

thanks to the exploitation of shale resources, the United States has become the world's largest natural gas producer in 2010. Subsequently, with the continuous improvement of exploration and development technology, the output of shale oil in the United States has also increased. Among them, condensate refined from oil shale has become the main component of oil production in the United States in recent years

condensate usually refers to the liquid component condensed from the natural gas of condensate gas field, which is a high-quality raw material for the oil refining industry. Because it condenses from natural gas and becomes light oil, it is called condensate

according to the data, the oil production of the United States reached 446 million tons in 2013, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.5%, ranking first among the top 10 countries with the largest oil production in the world. The average daily production increased from less than 5million barrels per day during the financial crisis to 8million barrels per day at present

according to the data provided by McKinsey & company, since the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008 as a basis for the study of artificial organs and medical devices, the daily production of condensate in the United States has increased from about 600000 barrels/day to about 3.5 million barrels/day, that is to say, almost most of the increased production capacity compared with the period of low daily production comes from condensate

at the same time, on the one hand, the domestic oil production of the United States has soared, on the other hand, the oil import of the United States has declined. According to the data of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the crude oil import volume of the United States on June 13 was 7.16 million barrels per day, a decrease of 24% over the past five years, mainly due to the exploitation of unconventional oil and gas

it can be seen that the shale revolution has changed the energy pattern of the United States, which has not only led to a substantial increase in U.S. natural gas production, but also led to a continuous increase in U.S. oil production, and now it has regained the throne of No. 1 in global oil production

On June 25, the U.S. Department of Commerce allowed pioneer natural resources Co., Ltd. and enterprise products partnership to export condensate, which was interpreted by the outside world as the first time that the United States had lifted the ban on crude oil exports since the United States banned oil exports to markets outside Canada in early 1974. The market began to talk about the impact of U.S. oil exports on international crude oil prices

however, the US Department of Commerce denied that new materials are changing the future of cars

since the fourth Middle East War, in order to maintain energy security, the United States has decided to reduce its dependence on imported crude oil as soon as possible, and has implemented the policy of prohibiting the export of crude oil to markets outside Canada since the 1970s

however, the condensate exported this time is slightly different from the product types specified in the U.S. crude oil export ban policy

first of all, the United States mainly prohibits the export of resource products such as crude oil and natural gas, while it is open to refined oil. From the source and composition analysis, condensate does not belong to crude oil, but it is a by-product of crude oil equivalent and natural gas

therefore, for condensate, its identity is also embarrassing because it has the dual attributes of crude oil and product oil. This time, the US Department of Commerce stated that all crude oil processed by the distillation tower is regarded as product oil, so the condensate after "small amount of processing" belongs to the category of product oil

however, the above two export condensate companies started with the subtle difference between distillation tower processing and a small amount of processing, and adopted stabilization treatment. Although this is no big difference for condensate, it makes the impact strength of condensate used to evaluate the impact resistance of materials or judge the degree of brittleness or toughness of materials become product oil, which also makes the export of condensate no longer. The leaders of this kind of experimental machine basically adopt it as the core control component, which has obstacles

then why is the US Department of Commerce open to condensate exports? As mentioned above, since the shale revolution, the production of shale oil, especially condensate, in the United States has increased significantly, which has reduced the energy price of the United States to a certain extent and promoted the economic development of the United States

however, despite the substantial increase in shale oil production, there are no oil refining facilities suitable for this shale oil production area - the Gulf Coast. The previous oil refining facilities were basically designed and built to adapt to the traditional high sulfur heavy crude oil. The renovation of oil refining facilities is costly and takes a long time, so it is not economical

in May this year, U.S. Department of energy secretary monitz said publicly that the government is reviewing the crude oil export ban since 1974 because the quality of shale oil increased in the United States does not match the current refinery units

limited impact on international crude oil

when talking about the liberalization of crude oil export policy in the United States, market participants first think of the impact on international crude oil prices

according to foreign media reports, the Brookings Institute estimates that the above two crude oil export companies are only allowed to export shale oil from Eagle Beach, South Texas, and the daily export limit will be 700000 barrels of light oil from next year. This is less than 1% of the 92.8 million barrels per day oil demand this year

robertcampbell, chief analyst of oil and gas products at energyaspectsltd, an oil and gas analysis agency, said that the current measures alone were not enough to change the rules of the game. But it is certain that other measures will be taken in the future to alleviate the oversupply of oil and gas in the Gulf of Mexico

analysts also said that the direct impact of the U.S. approval of condensate exports on the global oil supply and demand balance and price may be extremely limited, but specific to individual countries, the significance is different. For example, Canada, because its oil production is excessively dependent on shale oil, and the export market is excessively dependent on the United States, the increase in production and export of U.S. condensate is bound to have a negative impact on its economy and oil market strategy, Constitute a further impact

analysts also expect that at present, due to geopolitical problems and the instability of the domestic situation in Iraq, the oil price fluctuates violently, but the U.S. oil export ban has not been abolished. If the policy changes significantly, it may be able to balance the international crude oil price

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